Forbes reported in September that the University of Tennessee received nearly 70,000 first-year applications and enrolled more than 7,200 students this fall. The University of South Carolina received more than 69,000 applications, up 16% in one year and 64% over five. The University of Arkansas enrolled its largest-ever first-year class, with its highest average GPA. Many small private colleges and regional universities, meanwhile, struggled to fill seats. WICHE projects Tennessee and South Carolina will gain high school graduates through 2041 while Illinois loses nearly a third.
What this means for your student
For families in the Chicago suburbs, southern flagships are no longer automatic safeties. Several now behave like reaches for out-of-state applicants. If one sits at the bottom of your list, recheck the math.
Related reading
Sources: Forbes, “The Great College Sorting” (Sept. 15, 2026); WICHE, key findings by state.